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Globalization 2035: Think Rewiring, Not Retreat
Feeling dizzy by all the roller-coaster global chaos? Look out to the longer horizon. The global economy isn’t deglobalizing—it’s fragmenting, rewiring, and reshaping itself. Haiyan Wang highlights how global companies adapt to the tectonic shifts redefining globalization 2035.
By 2035, globalization will not have disappeared—it will have reset. The unipolar, U.S.-led liberal order that defined the post-Cold War era is giving way to a multi-polar, regionally fragmented, and digitally-driven global economic landscape. Trade bifurcation, geopolitical rivalry, technological decoupling, and climate imperatives are reshaping how countries and companies operate.
The new economic order will be defined by five structural shifts: a redistribution of global power, the rewiring of supply chains for resilience rather than just efficiency, a splintering of digital and data ecosystems, an ongoing green industrial transformation, and a slow shift toward currency multipolarity.
The U.S., China, the EU, and India will emerge as distinct gravitational centers, each with its own development philosophies. Extending IMF’s 2030 forecasts another 5 years, by 2035, the US will account for 25% of the world’s GDP, Europe and China for 19% each, and India for 6%. These regions will constitute the bulk of the gravitational pull of the global economy.
The risks ahead are real: escalating U.S.-China tensions, green protectionism, cross-border AI regulation battles, climate-induced migration, and supply chain choke points in critical minerals or semiconductors. Add to this financial volatility, dollar weaponization, and political populism, and the danger is not deglobalization, but disorderly globalization.
For companies, this means navigating fragmented rules without fragmenting the mission. Global enterprises will need to localize production of most goods and services along with deeper engagement with customers and societies in these mega-markets, while retaining a unified brand identity and strategic core. “Platform thinking” and “modular architectures” will become essential: businesses will need to build systems that can flex across jurisdictions while remaining cohesive.
Smart corporations will adopt engage-and-hedge strategies: Engage with all key blocs—diversifying markets, partners, and capital sources. Hedge by building supply chain optionality, digital sovereignty, and regulatory agility.
The winners of 2035 will not necessarily be the biggest or fastest-growing. They will be the most adaptable: those who skate to where the puck is going, not where it’s been. They will master complexity, balance sovereignty with openness, and build resilient architectures—economic, digital, and institutional—that thrive in a world of both connection and contestation.
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