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Bracing for Artificial Intelligence in the Absence of a Multilateral Mindset
A once-in-a-lifetime change of eras amid a return of war as a tool of choice, existential challenges at the world’s doorstep, and the imminent arrival of Artificial Intelligence come as the multilateral mindset recedes into irrelevance. Dr. David Chikvaidze invites readers to a review of the situation and to explore ways to strengthen the resilience of political and economic leaders and countries.
Towards the end of the first quarter of the twenty-first century, we find ourselves in a situation of unprecedented danger, significantly beyond the average standards of the classic Cold War. The brutal war in Ukraine has shown that the thirty-three-year-old post-Soviet transition has gone disastrously off the rails. Add to that over fifty major conflicts around the world that devastate entire societies and peoples.
At the risk of offering the biggest understatement of the year, the world is in a precarious state. Belligerent Uncertainty is a term introduced here to describe this state.
It is belligerent because the use and threat of force, despite the admonishments of the UN Charter, have become the tool of choice. It is fraught with uncertainty, because those wielding this tool with such abandon have no idea where their belligerence may lead.
When the world was rocked on its axis by Covid-19 in 2020, on top of all the other acute global problems that it was facing, many thought that it was in a situation of a “perfect storm.” Little did the world realize then that it was one dangerous element short of a ‘perfect storm, ’ and that element was a major war in the heart of the European continent. With that now raging for over three years, and savage conflicts in adjacent regions and further afield, the world is truly in a “perfect storm,” one that makes various hurricanes pale in comparison.
Humanity finds itself facing increasingly complex, interlocking, truly existential challenges in a situation of a near-total breakdown in multilateral thinking and action among the leading nations of the world, particularly those controlling the commanding heights of the UN Security Council. To say that the world is in transition would be an oversimplification.
Predicted back in 1996, the Clash of Civilizations is unfolding in its most acute form only now, underlying and magnifying today’s geostrategic and economic rivalries. Such rivalries have precedents in history, whenever a dominant power, or powers, are challenged by one, or a group of weaker but growing powers. Together with the civilizational clash, this defines today’s geopolitical tensions. Taken together, what the world is experiencing is not just an ordinary transition, but a change of eras, a pivotal moment, which only occurs maybe once in a century. A new social and economic paradigm is emerging, and political and industry leaders need to be conscious of this and adapt to the changing landscape.
Enter Artificial Intelligence! The acronym AI is well on its way to becoming the household name of the twenty-first century. Society is increasingly speculating about its future effects. Some see it as a panacea for all of society’s ills, and for good reason, others, as the ultimate element that will further worsen the world’s current problems. Yet, technological progress is hurtling towards the dramatic arrival of AI, whether we are ready or not.
Technical experts affirm that AI will be as helpful, or as dangerous, as the input that Human Intelligence, or (HI) – another key acronym to bear in mind – enters into the algorithms and technology that it itself invents and perfects. This is a reassuring prospect in the short term since it implies a level of human control over technology. Although given the raging climate crisis in the world, collapsing biodiversity, production and consumption patterns still characterized by take-make-waste, the erosion of trust at all levels inside countries and among them, wars, political and economic upheavals, etc., one is justified in wondering whether Human Intelligence isn’t the “Mother of all” contradictions in terms!
Artificial Intelligence is only the most current and highest form of technological progress. But Human Nature (HN) – another crucial acronym to always remember – which has not changed over millennia, is humankind’s own worst enemy, threatening to ‘sidetrack’ Artificial Intelligence just as it has sidetracked other technological progress in the past. The underlying danger – one of many future ones to be sure – is that with time, and inadequate ‘guardrails’, AI could develop its own algorithms and intellect and make its own decisions.
The private sector will use AI to obtain an advantage over competitors, which is fair enough under capitalism, but the key is that if unregulated, this can lead to untold abuse. Private sector leaders are key in recognizing, navigating, and proactively preparing for these risks, indeed, troubleshooting them and helping the rest of the world to mitigate them.
The worldwide military-industrial complex is certain to apply AI to perfect military technology to obtain an advantage over its enemies, real and perceived. In this quest, the ultimate danger is that human intelligence, due to its human nature DNA, could create a technological nightmare world where the machines will be empowered to make life and death decisions, a prospect that is already present today in the Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, or (LAWS). Yet, history clearly shows that no invention or military technological breakthrough – nuclear weapons, missile technology, MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle) warheads on Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, space weapons, etc. – has ever remained ‘exclusive’, they have always been offset by the ‘other side’, dashing the hopes of superiority, but making the world much more dangerous for everyone.
Another huge risk, which, like LAWS, is already very much a part of everyday life, is AI-generated content in the information space. To be sure, having AI assist with the drafting of a memo is very helpful, but the proliferation and quality of deepfakes are jarring. And this is happening in an environment where the younger generation is addicted to smartphones and the Internet.
The key element is governance, in which, unfortunately, the world does not have a good track record. To this day, there are no protocols even for the use of email and social media, let alone AI. The current best idea is to entrust the “United Nations” to govern AI. But it begs the question – particularly important in the near absence of a multilateral mindset among the member states of the Organization – which UN? If the past is any indicator, the member states, the ‘owners’ of the Organization, will not work together in a multilateral spirit to achieve common goals but will remain in their ‘national silos,’ and continue to work against each other for the most insignificant of gains in the larger scheme of things. And when that happens, as in previous cases, and AI governance fails, they will turn around and blame the UN acronym for not being able to be ‘up to the task’, or as the current fashionable phrase has it, not being ‘fit for purpose.’
In closing, where is the United Nations in all this, one may well ask. The alarming worldwide epidemic of ‘national egoism’ and the return of war as the ‘tool of choice’ has almost entirely sidelined multilateral diplomacy.
This sad reality starkly underpins the dysfunction of the UN Security Council, the main Principal Organ of the UN bearing primary responsibility for peace and security, and of its permanent members. This deals a blow to multilateral diplomacy overall. To be sure, multilateral fora continue meeting, whether on human rights, or forestry issues, or transboundary contamination of rivers, or, indeed, on AI, but even there, the animosities in the area of peace and security and the overall breakdown of civil discourse among countries are palpable.
This state of affairs also hampers the work of the UN Secretary-General, not only as an individual, but importantly, as an institution. The current Secretary-General is working to get the member states to engage beyond lofty words from a high rostrum and the adoption of voluminous all-encompassing documents that — as in the past — none of them have any real intention to implement, but it is truly an uphill battle. This predicament is likely to persist until such time as the Secretary-General as an institution is no longer totally under the control of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and has the latitude to perform, as the UN Charter stipulates, and the world expects of this office.
What the world is facing with AI governance is a truly global problem, not least due to the global nature of the Internet, and not a national one. This means that piecemeal national solutions will not be effective. Political, business, and civil society leaders, the entire international community, need to engage together and seek win-win solutions.
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